Key takeaways
- Inflation is the rate prices rise. When inflation falls (“disinflation”), prices still rise, just more slowly. Prices only fall if there is deflation.
- By the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) index, US consumer prices were about 30.6% higher in September 2026 than in January 2020 (our calculation from BLS index values).
- Some prices are “sticky,” meaning they change rarely. The Atlanta Fed tracks these separately.
- Right now inflation is not falling: prices rose 0.4% in October 2026, and BLS figures show 3.7% over the 12 months to September 2026 (our calculation).
This article is general information based on official data and Federal Reserve explainers. It is not financial advice.
Inflation, disinflation and deflation: three different things
The St. Louis Fed defines them simply:
- Inflation is a sustained increase in the price level of goods and services.
- Disinflation is a decrease in the rate of inflation.
- Deflation is a sustained decrease in the price level.
Its example: say inflation is 4% and prices of a basket of goods reach $10. If inflation then falls to 3% (disinflation), the basket costs $10.30. If it rises to 5%, the basket costs $10.50. Only if inflation turns negative, to a negative 1%, does the basket fall to $9.90. So when you hear “inflation is coming down,” prices have not come down. They are rising more slowly.
How much higher are prices than before?
The BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers. We took the BLS’s published index values (not seasonally adjusted) and worked out the change over different periods:
| Period | Change in CPI |
|---|---|
| Jan 2020 to Sept 2026 | +30.6% |
| Jan 2021 to Sept 2026 | +28.8% |
| 12 months to June 2022 (the recent peak) | +9.1% |
| 12 months to Sept 2023 | +3.7% |
| 12 months to Sept 2024 | +2.4% |
| 12 months to Sept 2025 | +3.0% |
| 12 months to Sept 2026 | +3.7% |
Look at the 2023 and 2024 rows. Inflation slowed from 9.1% to 2.4%, which is real disinflation. But the price level didn’t drop. Each of those years still added to the total, and that is why a basket of groceries, rent or car insurance costs much more than it did in 2020 even while headlines said inflation was cooling.
Where things stand now (October 2026)
Inflation is not currently falling. BLS reported on November 10, 2026 that the CPI rose 0.4% in October (seasonally adjusted) after rising 0.6% in September. Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for over 30% of the monthly rise. Food rose 0.5%, and energy rose 0.7% after a 5.2% jump in September. BLS also said gasoline prices were up 37.4% over the 12 months to October.
BLS added a note: it did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations (a government funding gap), so it can’t publish a 12-month percent change for many series in October 2026. That’s why this article uses September for the 12-month figure.
Why some prices stay up: “sticky” prices
Some prices change often, and some almost never do. The Atlanta Fed explains that if a price is sticky, it is “fixed for a given period of time, months or maybe even years,” and adjusts slowly to changing conditions. Its examples: gasoline prices change “sometimes daily,” while insurance prices change “typically about once a year.”
The Atlanta Fed publishes a sticky-price CPI and a flexible-price CPI. In its November 10, 2026 update, the sticky-price index was up 3.1% over 12 months, and the flexible index up 6.2%. The Atlanta Fed notes that many economists believe sticky prices partly reflect sellers’ expectations about inflation over the period their prices stay fixed.
Why prices rarely fall back
Based on the sources above, there are two practical points:
- The goal is slower inflation, not falling prices. The St. Louis Fed says central banks influence inflation mainly through monetary policy. Deflation, a sustained fall in prices, is not the aim.
- Slowing inflation after a big jump takes time. The St. Louis Fed notes that slowing inflation from very high levels, as in the early 1980s, was usually accompanied by a recession and can be painful.
Whether firms raise prices more than their costs justify is a debated question among economists. We did not research that debate for this article, so we don’t take a side.
What this means for your budget
- Compare to income, not just to last year. What matters is whether your pay has risen as fast as the prices you pay.
- Fixed-price items stay fixed. Insurance, which the Atlanta Fed says typically changes about once a year, can reset all at once and feel like a surprise.
- Watch the 12-month figure and the monthly figure. Monthly numbers bounce around, as October’s 0.4% rise and June’s 0.4% drop show.
- Build a buffer. See our guide to building an emergency fund.
Frequently asked questions
If inflation is falling, why aren’t prices? Falling inflation means prices rise more slowly. Prices only fall if there is deflation, which is a sustained decrease in the price level.
How much have prices risen since 2020? About 30.6% between January 2020 and September 2026, using BLS’s CPI index (our calculation).
What are sticky prices? Prices that change rarely, such as insurance, which the Atlanta Fed says typically changes about once a year.
Is inflation falling now? Not in the latest data. BLS reported a 0.4% rise in October 2026 after 0.6% in September.
Information checked on: November 13, 2026. Economic data are updated monthly; check bls.gov for the latest.
Sources
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index summary, October 2026 (released November 10, 2026)
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-U all items index, not seasonally adjusted (data.bls.gov, series CUUR0000SA0)
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, “Inflation, Disinflation and Deflation: What Do They All Mean?” (August 23, 2023)
- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, “What is the Sticky-Price Consumer Price Index (CPI)?” and Sticky-Price CPI data page (updated November 10, 2026)
Money note: this article is for general information and is not financial advice.
